New Poll Shows Devastating Trump Loss to Several Prominent Dems in 2020

New Poll Shows Devastating Trump Loss to Several Prominent Dems in 2020

Trump would face long odds if Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden were to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination

A new poll released Tuesday afternoon — conducted by the market research firm SSRS on behalf of CNN — paints an ominous picture for President Donald Trump’s reelection chances if he’s pitted against two high-profile Democrats: Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. The poll also found Trump trailing another former television host — Oprah Winfrey — by double digits. CNN reports:

In a series of hypothetical 2020 one-on-one contests Trump trails Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a 55% to 42% margin among registered voters. He lags further behind former Vice President Joe Biden by a wide 57% to 40% split, and trails television personality Oprah Winfrey by a 51% to 42% divide.

Biden Cuts Deepest Into Trump Base

The last three election cycles have featured Biden and Sanders, so there is plenty of reason to assume both men are at least entertaining the possibility of mounting another run. Winfrey, for her part, has given no indication that she intends to seek the nomination. Yet a rousing speech earlier this month at the Golden Globe Awards has drawn comparisons to then-Illinois State Senator Barack Obama’s keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Until the media magnate sends a stronger signal that a run is possible, it’s likely best to categorize her candidacy as even more hypothetical than Biden and Sanders at this point. Furthermore, the field of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination is expected to be the biggest in party history.

None of this disqualifies just how panic-inducing this poll should be to the White House. And of these candidates, Biden shows a remarkable ability on paper to penetrate Trump’s base. Among all respondents, Biden leads Trump among:

  • Men, 50% to 47% 
  • Whites, 51% – 46% 
  • Voters over 45, 55%-42%
  • Voters over 65, 56%-41% 
  • Those earning less than $50,000 per year, 67%-30% 
  • Those earning more than $50,000 per year, 56%-42%
  • Independent voters, 57%-38%  

The only demographics in which Trump wins a theoretical matchup against Biden is with Republicans/Conservatives (thank you, Captain Obvious) and a 5 point margin among non-college educated whites. In 2016, the Republican carried whites without college degrees by 37 points.

Yes, Clinton Led Polls Too

If you attempt to discuss these poll findings with folks who support the president, be prepared to be continuously lectured about how 2016 polls predicted a Hillary Clinton victory. Now, if the person you’re debating is one who understands nuance, feel free to point out the following facts:

  • The final RealClearPolitics aggregate polling of 2016 gave Clinton a 2.1 average lead, with margins of error of 3 points. Technically any outcome of Clinton +5.1 through Trump +0.9 would have been accurate.
  • However, when we look at the final vote tallies, we see Clinton winning by a margin of…2.1 points!

While 2016 polling has little to no impact on the 2020 race, it’s important to understand the intricacies of what the polls can project. The last round was more accurate than it is often given credit for.

RELATED: Trump Scam Anger Suggests Trump Defeat in 2020, Poll Suggests

And for anybody contemplating volunteering for or writing a check to “Trump 2020”, you might just want to look at the arduous mountain the president will have to climb to avoid being only the third president in the last 100 years to lose reelection four years after winning the presidency.

Photo by Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images

Ed Hanratty is a Reverb Press contributor and freelance political journalist. A lifelong New Jerseyan, he prides himself on having just enough Garden State sarcasm and skepticism to keep his bleeding heart in check. Keep up with Ed’s work and random ramblings on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram using the links below…but not Snapchat — that’s where he’s decided to draw the social media line. (For Now)

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Ed Hanratty is a Reverb Press contributor and freelance political journalist. A lifelong New Jerseyan, he prides himself on having just enough Garden State sarcasm and skepticism to keep his bleeding heart in check. Keep up with Ed’s work and random ramblings on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram using the links below…but not Snapchat — that’s where he’s decided to draw the social media line. (For Now)

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